by Rodil on July 26, 2010
Mortgage markets worsened last week for the first time in 6 weeks last week. Investors were pleased with corporate earnings reports and the European bank stress tests results. Stocks gained on the news, and bonds lost.
Mortgage rates rose last week, but only slightly. Rate are still hovering near their lowest levels of all-time.
Of the bigger stories last week was Existing Home Sales. As reported by the National Association of Realtors®, sales volume was down in June and home supplies were up. But figures were a bit better than expected, giving some hope for housing.
Notably, the number of move-up buyers outnumbers first-timers and the national median home price rose, suggesting that mid-to-upper home prices are getting some support.
This week, the market gets additional two pieces of housing data to add to the mix:
- New Homes Sales (Monday)
- Case-Shiller Index (Tuesday)
Both will have an impact on mortgage rates. In general, better-than-expected data should cause rates to rise in California ; worse-than-expected data should cause rates to fall.
Also this week, there’s two consumer confidence reports, the Fed’s Beige Book, and late-in-the-week inflationary data. Mortgage markets should remain volatile with so much news headed down the pipe.
It’s too soon to declare the current 3-month rally over, but it’s been 3 weeks since rates dipped. This can be a signal that mortgage rates have finally bottomed and that it’s time to lock your rate.
If you’re floating a mortgage rate, or thinking about a refinance, it’s time to get locked in. Rates may drop this week, but then again, maybe they won’t. There’s little sense gambling on a bet as big as a mortgage.
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If you have questions on this, contact Rodil San Mateo at RSanMateo@EastBayLoanTips.com or call (925)-922-0470.
by Rodil on July 19, 2010
Mortgage markets improved for the 5th straight week last week as consumer confidence waned and inflation data tamed. Investors ignored the news that 19 of 23 reporting S&P 500 companies beat their respective earnings estimates and sold off on stocks.
There’s concern about a potential economic slowdown for the months ahead and it may be well-founded.
Despite an improving jobs situation and booming retail sales, households are less optimistic about the future and so is the Federal Reserve. In its post-meeting minutes released last week, the Fed revised its U.S. growth estimates downward for 2010 and 2011.
For rate shoppers in Alameda County and the rest of California, this is excellent news.
Because of the weakness, conforming mortgage rates fell again last week, extending the current rally in rates to 16 weeks. Mortgage rates are lower than at any time in measured history.
This week, data will be housing market-heavy and mortgage rates could rise or fall.
- Monday : National Association of Home Builders Index
- Tuesday : Building Permits and Housing Starts
- Thursday : Existing Home Sales
Strength in any, or all three, of these housing-related reports should push mortgage rates higher on higher hopes for the economy. Weakness, on the other hand, should have the opposite effect.
Overall, though, mortgage markets are trending better. Momentum is in effect and refinance activity is soaring. That said, it doesn’t mean that rates won’t rise — they could absolutely. It just takes a change in market sentiment. And that could happen quickly.
Mortgage rates are artificially right now so even the slightest jolt could cause them to spike. It would be similar to what happened in June 2009 when rates rose 1.125% in just 10 days’ time. Therefore, if you’re shopping for a mortgage and like the rate you’ve been quoted, consider locking in as soon as possible.
There’s very little room for rates to fall further but a lot of room for rates to rise. Make sure you’re on the right side of that bet.
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If you have questions on this, contact Rodil San Mateo at RSanMateo@EastBayLoanTips.com or call (925)-922-0470.
If you have questions about this post, please call me at (925)-922-0470. Thanks!